Keynes et les probabilités: un aspect du « fondamentalisme » keynésien

Jean Arrous

Revue Économique, 1982, vol. 33, issue 5, 839-861

Abstract: [fre] En dépit des controverses qui entourent son interprétation, le chapitre xn de la Théorie générale de Keynes (« L'état de la prévision à long terme ») constitue l'une des contributions essentielles de cet auteur à la macroéconomie, contribution que A. Coddington qualifie de « fondamentalisme » keynésien. Le présent article montre que les développements de ce chapitre sont éclairés par la lecture [eng] Keynes and probability :. An insight into « fundamentalist Keynesianism ». Jean Arrous. The main argument developed in this paper is that one of the most fundamental contributions of }. M. Keynes to macroeconomics, namely Chapter 12 of the General Theory (« The state of long-term expectation ») can be better understood with the analytical framework of his much earlier Treatise on Probability. The above subject is certainly one of the most controversial aspects of Keynes' theory and at the same time a cornerstone of what A. Coddington has called « fundamentalist keynesianism ». The analysis of uncertainty being so central to investment and thus to ouerall macroeconomic instability we do have to shed a light upon its probabilistic foundations.

Date: 1982
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408683
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