Crises de balance des paiements, politique monétaire, contrôle des changes

Patrick Artus

Revue Économique, 1986, vol. 37, issue 4, 637-658

Abstract: [fre] Crise de balance des paiements, politique monétaire, contrôle des changes. . On examine dans ce papier divers cas d'abandon d'une parité fixe dans un pays où la création monétaire est plus forte qu'à l'étranger. Il n'y a crise de balance des paiements, c'est-à-dire attaque spéculative sur le taux de change en anticipation parfaite, que si le contrôle des changes permet la détention de monnaie nationale par les non-résidents et si cette détention a un caractère spéculatif et non transactionnel. Si le contrôle des changes permet aux non-résidents de détenir de la monnaie nationale mais non de s'endetter en monnaie nationale, il peut y avoir dévaluation et non passage aux changes flexibles. [eng] Balance of payment crisis, monetary policy and capital control. . In that paper, several cases of a collapse of a fixed exchange-rate regime by a country where the growth rate of money supply is too large are examined. A balance of payments crisis, i.e. a speculative attack on foreign exchange reserves with perfect foresight, occurs if capital controls don't prevent foreigners from holding the domestic currency, and if it is held for speculative and not transactionnal purposes. If foreigners are allowed to hold the domestic currency but not to borrow it, it is possible to devaluate and not to turn to a flexible exchange rate system after the balance of payments crisis has taken place.

Date: 1986
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1986.408932
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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