Bulletin de santé des modèles macro-économétriques

Pierre Malgrange

Revue Économique, 1992, vol. 43, issue 4, 565-576

Abstract: [eng] The current state of macroeconometric models . . This contribution aims at presenting in a non technical way the present state of macro-economic modelling after forty years of practice and critisism. Macroeconometric models are assessed as sophisticated tools and their usefulness and limitations are discussed in the light of recent developments of macroeconomic theory as well as of econometric methods. It is concluded that there do not exist, at the time, real substitute for conventional structural modelling. [fre] Bulletin de santé des modèles macro-économétriques. . L'objet de cette contribution est de faire le point de manière non technique sur l'état actuel de la modélisation macro-économique après quarante ans de pratique et de critiques. Les instruments sophistiqués que sont les modèles macro­économétriques sont évalués, et leurs portées et limites discutées, à la lumière des développements récents tant de la théorie que des méthodes économétriques. La conclusion est que la modélisation structurelle de facture traditionnelle n'a pas, à l'heure actuelle, de véritable substitut.

Date: 1992
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