Pourquoi le SME a explosé et comment le relancer ?

Charles Wyplosz, Barry Eichengreen and Jean Pisani-Ferry ()

Revue Économique, 1994, vol. 45, issue 3, 673-688

Abstract: [fre] Pourquoi le SME a explosé et comment le relancer ?. . Les quatre interprétations avancées à la suite des crises de change de 1992 et de 1993 sont probablement complémentaires. Les leçons à tirer conduisent à porter un jugement pessimiste sur les possibilités de survie du SME et donc du traité de Maastricht, faisant même planer une menace sur le Marché commun. La plupart des mesures proposées pour faire face à la nouvelle situation ignorent l'une ou l'autre de ces leçons. La tendance dominante est de parier sur un heu­reux concours de circonstances. Il est préférable de prévoir le pire. Une mesure prudentielle simple, l'obligation d'un dépôt non rémunéré sur les positions ouvertes, restaure l'élément de stabilité perdu avec l'abandon des contrôles de change. [eng] Why did the ems blow-up and how to fix it . . Four usual interpretations of the exchange crises of 1992 and 1993 are not mutually exclusive. Taken together, however, they send an ominous signal about EMS chances of survival and the prospects for achieving monetary union along the Unes of the Maastricht Treaty. The Common Market's future itself might be at stake over the longer run. A number of proposais have been advanced recently. Unfortunately each of them fail to properly take into account one or the other among the lessons drawn from the crises. The risk is that we now hope for the best. Proper policy planning ought to be ready for the worst. This paper porposes a simple prudential measure, establishing mandatory deposits on open positions.

Date: 1994
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1994.409557
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