Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil: l'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix

Jérôme Sgard

Revue Économique, 1998, vol. 49, issue 1, 239-256

Abstract: [eng] Inflation, stabilisation and relative prices in Argentina and Brazil, the experience of the 1990's. . This papers analyses the stabilisation programes which brought to an end twenty years of high or hyper-inflation, first in Argentina (1991), then in Brazil (1994). Rather than a full disindexation of the economy, as was aimed by the heteredox strategies of the mid-1980's, this new generation of programes aimed at stabilising nominal evolution via the full indexation of the price structure. In Argentina, this took the form of a rigid bimonetary regime, under the form of a rather classic Currency Board. In Brazil, the Piano Real has reconstructed in two steps a fully-fledged, single national currency : first the unit of account function was stabilised, then the unit of payment was exchanged through a standard monetary reform. A remarquable aspect of these two experiences is that, however the con­trast between their respective institutionnal arrangements, the actual constraints bearing on policy makers are very close : most of all, the strength of underlying indexation mechanisms, as the low level of monetisation imply that foreign exchange policy is extremely difficult to manage. In both countries, a sudden, dis­crete devaluation may rapidly cause a sharp acceleration of inflation. This should remain as a long-term sequel of past high inflation, which already imposes heavy constraints on micro-level, real adjustment. [fre] Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil. L'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix. . On analyse les programmes de stabilisation qui ont mis un terme à plus de vingt ans de haute inflation en Argentine (1991), puis au Brésil (1994). Plutôt qu'une désindexation de l'économie, ils ont visé la stabilisation par une stratégie d'indexation totale. Celle-ci a pris la forme en Argentine d'un régime bimonétaire rigide de Currency Board, imposant des ajustements microéconomiques profonds. Au Brésil, le Plan Real a reconstruit une monnaie entière, en stabilisant d'abord la fonction d'unité de compte puis en échangeant le numéraire. Toutefois, au-delà de dispositifs institutionnels opposés, la puissance des mécanismes d'indexation, comme la faible remonétisation, rend a priori délicate dans les deux pays tout politique de change active. Ceci devrait être une des séquelles les plus durables de la haute inflation.

Date: 1998
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1998.409975
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