Allongement de l'espérance de vie et choix du système de retraite

Patrick Artus

Revue Économique, 2002, vol. 53, issue 4, 809-824

Abstract: [fre] On modélise habituellement les effets du vieillissement en introduisant un cycle démographique dans le modèle à générations imbriquées. On montre alors que l'existence de fonds de pension capitalisés accroît les inégalités de bien-être entre générations, au détriment des générations nombreuses. Nous montrons que le résultat est différent, à long terme mais pas pour la première génération concernée, si le vieillissement est modélise comme venant de l'augmentation de la probabilité de survie à tout âge. Nous distinguons, pour faire cette analyse, le cas de fonds de pension payant une rente et celui de fonds de pension versant un capital au moment de la retraite. Dans le second cas, des complications viennent du risque d'épuisement du capital reçu et de l'existence d'héritages involontaires. [eng] Increase in life expectancy and choice of the pension system. . The effects of aging are usually modelised by introducing a demographic cycle in the overlapping generations model. Itis in that case shown that the existence of funded pension funds increases the welfare inequalities between the generations, the large generation being more penalised than with a PAYG system. We show that a different result is obtained, in the long run but not for the first generation experiencing an increase in life expectancy, if aging is modelized as resulting from the increase in the probability of survival at all ages. We distinguish between the cases of pension funds paying a regular pension and of pension funds paying a capital at retirement. In the second case, the analysis is made more complicated by the presence of the risk of spending prematurely the entire capital and of involuntary bequests.

Date: 2002
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