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Croissance française à l'horizon 2000: haut niveau de chômage ou réduction de la durée du travail ?

Eric Confais, Gérard Cornilleau (), Alain Gubian and Catherine Mathieu ()

Revue de l'OFCE, 1993, vol. 44, issue 1, 109-154

Abstract: [eng] French economic growth by the end of the century: high unemployment or reduction in weekly hours of work? Eric Confais, Gérard Cornilleau, Alain Gubian, Catherine Mathieu By the end of the century, the French economy would succeed in maintaining both a low inflation rate and balanced external accounts. However, the average annual growth rate of the French economy, lower than 3%, would not allow a decrease in the unemployed, under the hypotheses of the increases in the labour force. A substantial decrease in unemployment could be obtained if a significant cut in the number of weekly hours of work took place, though. This cut should be implemented under very restrictive conditions: partial wage reductions and reorganization of firms' production. [fre] D'ici l'an 2000, dans un environnement international moyennement porteur, la France conforterait ses principaux atouts, inflation modérée et équilibre extérieur, mais ne parviendrait pas à enrayer la progression du chômage. Le taux de croissance moyen, inférieur à 3%, serait en effet trop faible, au regard des hypothèses d'augmentation de la population active. Une diminution importante du chômage, sans dégradation de l'équilibre macroéconomique, pourrait cependant être obtenue par une réduction significative de la durée hebdomadaire du travail qui interviendrait sous certaines conditions assez restrictives : compensation salariale très partielle ; réorganisation de la production dans les entreprises.

Date: 1993
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1993.1315
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