Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for the Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region - A Critical Overview

Daniel Kosiorowski, Dominik Mielczarek and Jerzy P. Rydlewski ()
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Daniel Kosiorowski: Cracow University of Economics
Dominik Mielczarek: AGH University of Science and Technology
Jerzy P. Rydlewski: AGH University of Science and Technology

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2018, vol. 10, issue 1, 53-73

Abstract: In economics we often face a system which intrinsically imposes a structure of hierarchy of its components, i.e., in modeling trade accounts related to foreign exchange or in optimization of regional air protection policy. A problem of reconciliation of forecasts obtained on different levels of hierarchyh as been addressed in the statistical and econometric literature many times and concerns bringing together forecasts obtained independently at different levels of hierarchy. This paper deals with this issue with regard to a hierarchicalfunctional time series. We present and critically discuss a state of art and indicate opportunities of an application of these methods to a certain environment protection problem. We critically compare the best predictor known from the literature with our own original proposal. Within the paper we study a macromodel describing the day and night air pollution in Silesia region divided into five subregions.

Keywords: day and night air pollution; functional data analysis; functionalmedian; hierarchical time series; reconciliation of forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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