Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy

Victor Bystrov

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2018, vol. 10, issue 4, 333-353

Abstract: In this paper a semi-structural econometric model is implemented in order to estimate the natural rates of interest in two large economies of the Euro Area: Germany an Italy. The estimates suggest that after the financial crisis of 2007-2008 a decrease of the growth rate of potential output and the corresponding natural rate of interest was greater in Italy than in Germany which could have had important implications for the effectiveness of a common monetary policy. Unlike in other studies, it is found that the monetary policy stance was less expansionary in Italy as compared to Germany for the whole after-crisis period.

Keywords: natural rate of interest; potential output; euro area; state-space model; Kalman filter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Working Paper: Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:psc:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:333-353

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