Economics at your fingertips  

Determinants of the VAT Gap in EU Member States from 2000 to 2016

Robert Kelm ()
Additional contact information
Robert Kelm: University of Lodz, Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2022, vol. 14, issue 4, 225-262

Abstract: The spectacular surge of Poland’s VAT revenues after 2015 prompted a discussion about the role of the tax administration in collecting tax liabilities. Unfortunately, the scarcity of the available data prevents empirical studies from reaching reliable conclusions about the determinants of VAT revenues. Given that, this article presents a wider attempt at identifying the determinants of VAT revenues in the EU Member States. Using panel cointegration methods, several working hypotheses linking VAT gap to income factors, the business cycle, tax carousels, and an effectiveness of the government are evaluated. The results of the research provide evidence that the VAT gap in the EU countries is under a strong influence from variables approximating changes in per capita incomes, the business cycle, and the openness of an economy to intra-EU trade. The latter finding is a sufficient indication that the improvements made to Poland’s tax system were both legitimate and effective.

Keywords: VAT revenues’ determinants; econometric modelling; panel cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E61 H22 H26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics from Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Damian Jelito ().

Page updated 2023-02-04
Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:351-379