On the Empirical Importance of Periodicity in the Volatility of Financial Returns - Time Varying GARCH as a Second Order APC(2) Process

Błażej Mazur () and Mateusz Pipień

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2012, vol. 4, issue 2, 95-116

Abstract: We discuss the empirical importance of long term cyclical effects in the volatility of financial returns. Following Amado and Terasvirta (2009), Cizek and Spokoiny (2009) and others, we consider a general conditionally heteroscedastic process with stationarity property distorted by a deterministic function that governs the possible time variability of the unconditional variance. The function proposed in this paper can be interpreted as a finite Fourier approximation of an Almost Periodic (AP) function as defined by Corduneanu (1989). The resulting model has a particular form of a GARCH process with time varying parameters, intensively discussed in the recent literature. In the empirical analyses we apply a generalisation of the Bayesian AR(1)-GARCH model for daily returns of S&P500, covering the period of sixty years of US postwar economy, including the recently observed global financial crisis. The results of a formal Bayesian model comparison clearly indicate the existence of significant long term cyclical patterns in volatility with a strongly supported periodic component corresponding to a 14 year cycle. Our main results are invariant with respect to the changes of the conditional distribution from Normal to Student-t and to the changes of the volatility equation from regular GARCH to the Asymmetric GARCH.

Keywords: GARCH models; Bayesian inference; periodically correlated stochastic processes; volatility; unconditional variance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C58 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cejeme.eu/publishedarticles/2013-08-11-634961741284062500-2201.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:psc:journl:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:95-116

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics from Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Damian Jelito ().