Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors and the control of short term interest rates

Ulrich Bindseil ()
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Ulrich Bindseil: European Central Bank, DG-Operations, Operations Analysis Division, Frankfurt a.M. (Germany)

BNL Quarterly Review, 2002, vol. 55, issue 220, 13-37

Abstract: A simple model of the interaction between central bank liquidity management and the inter-bank overnight rate is suggested, which allows analysing the publication offorecasts of liquidity factors by the European Central Bank adopted in June 2000. The paper argues that the main practical advantage of the publication of theseforecasts is that it makes the signal extraction problem with regard to the centralbank's intentions trivial and hence allows establishing a superior behavioural equilibrium between the central bank and the money market participants. In this equilibrium, the central bank can achieve a better steering of overnight rates than under private autonomous factor forecasts, depending of course also on the quality of liquidity forecasts. It is furthermore shown that the publication of an average of autonomous factors, such as adopted by the ECB, is, at least within the model presented, superior to the separate publication of autonomous factors for each single day.

Keywords: Interest Rates; Interest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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