The US economy: weakness of the "strong" recovery

Wynne Godley () and Alex Izurieta ()
Additional contact information
Wynne Godley: University of Cambridge, CERF - Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Cambridge (Great Britain)
Alex Izurieta: University of Cambridge, CERF - Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Cambridge (Great Britain)

BNL Quarterly Review, 2004, vol. 57, issue 229, 131-139

Abstract: The strategic prospects for the US (or any) economy can be evaluated by reference to the financial balances of its main sectors, which are related to one another by a consistent accounting system. The 1992-2000 expansion, accompanied by a rising budget surplus, was greeted by a storm of self-congratulation in the US and widely expected to last indefinitely. But inspection of the balances revealed that the configuration of driving forces was unsustainable and that the fiscal stance should drastically change at some stage. Eventually, there has indeed been a huge fiscal expansion which warded off an incipient recession. But the new configuration of financial balances again reveals an unsustainable situation, with government, foreign and private debt all rising excessively fast. Sustained growth in the medium term can only be achieved if there is now a prolonged expansion in net export demand--for which the rest of the world does not seem to be well prepared.

Keywords: Expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9824/9709 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2004:22

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.economiacivile.it

Access Statistics for this article

BNL Quarterly Review is currently edited by Alessandro Roncaglia

More articles in BNL Quarterly Review from Banca Nazionale del Lavoro
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Carlo D'Ippoliti ().