A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US

Richard Cebula ()

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 2002, vol. 55, issue 223, 417-435

Abstract: Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.

Keywords: Budget; Deficit; Interest Rates; Interest; Money Supply; Money; Supply; Tax (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E62 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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