Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies

1997 - 2025

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2025

The ECB’s monetary policy strategy: from the 2021 review to the 2025 assessment

Alexandre Carvalho, José Miguel Cardoso da Costa, Joana Garcia, Sandra Gomes and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

Do all underlying inflation measures perform equally? (Re)assessment after an inflation shock

Carlos Melo Gouveia, Sara Serra and João Quelhas

How do financial markets view risks in the global banking sector? A heatmap with a novel thermometer

Marcel Bräutigam, Martín Saldías and Martin Scheicher

A firm-level analysis of the labour share in Portugal

Manuel Coutinho Pereira

2024

Housing markets in Portugal and Spain: Fundamentals, overvaluation and shocks

Rita Fradique Lourenço, Paulo M.M. Rodrigues and Afonso S. Moura

The personal income tax in Portugal: from the sovereign debt crisis to the inflationary shock

Sara Riscado, Sharmin Sazedj and Lara Wemans

Deposit interest rates and monetary policy transmission

Diana Bonfim and Leonor Queiró

Reaching out to the general public: a challenging journey for central banks

Isabel Gameiro, Rita Duarte and Ildeberta Abreu

The impact of Brexit on Portuguese-British trade

Laszlo Tetenyi

An analysis of hospital efficiency in Portugal

Cláudia Braz, Sonia Cabral and Leonor Cunha

Inflation expectations and household choices: the role of financial knowledge

João Nuno Quelhas

Human Capital and Entrepreneurship

Attila Gyetvai, Nasir Hossein Dad, Nicholas Kozeniauskas and Eugene Tan

Euro area inflation expectations: A focus on consumers’ expectations

Sandra Gomes, Nuno Monteiro and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

Robots in Portuguese Firms

João Amador

Measuring inflation using price indices

Fernando Martins

Product market concentration dynamics over the COVID-19 pandemic period

Ana Cristina Soares, Tiago Ferreiro and Inês Lindoso

Transport modes in Portuguese international trade: Insights from firm-level data

João Amador, Carlos Melo Gouveia and Ana Catarina Pimenta

2023

A macro approach to the relative efficiency of the Portuguese health system

Cláudia Braz and Sonia Cabral

A view on ICT and digitalization in Portuguese firms

João Amador and Cátia Silva

From first to last: the National Accounts revisions

Fátima Cardoso, Carlos Melo Gouveia and António Rua

On the forecasting power of corporate sales growth determinants

Nuno Silva and Pedro Dias Moreira

Risk reallocation under Central Bank’s large-scale asset purchases

Bernardino Adão and Alberto López Martín

The euro area natural interest rate – Estimation and importance for monetary policy

Alexandre Carvalho

Monetary policy and the recent inflation surge

Pedro Teles and Bruno Freitas

The inflation process in Portugal: the role of price spillovers

Sara Serra and João Quelhas

The M Model: a macroeconomic model for the Portuguese economy

Gabriela Castro and Cláudia Duarte

A novel decomposition of national central banks’ profits in the euro area: application to the case of Banco de Portugal

José Miguel Cardoso da Costa and Nuno Silva

Markup premium of Portuguese exporters

Ana Cristina Soares and Rita Sousa

European structural funds and the performance of Portuguese firms

Sonia Cabral and Maria Campos

2022

A circular business cycle clock for Portugal

Nuno Lourenço and António Rua

Firm lifecycles

Pedro Dias Moreira, Nicholas Kozeniauskas, António R. dos Santos and Laszlo Tetenyi

A multidimensional poverty indicator for Portugal

Nuno Alves

The role of family social transfers in reducing child poverty in Portugal

Lara Wemans, Sara Riscado and Edlira Narazani

On the solvency and credibility of a central bank

José Miguel Cardoso da Costa

Pandemic shocks

Paulo Júlio and José Maria

On the aggregate and distributional effects of carbon taxation in Portugal

Nuno Lourenço, Zeina Hasna and Cezar Santos

Corporate insolvency and restructuring during COVID-19

Gil Nogueira

An assessment of companies’ competitiveness in Portugal and in some European countries

Fernando Martins, Hugo Reis, Manuel Coutinho Pereira, Mário Lourenço and Cloé Magalhães

The competitiveness of the Portuguese economy: A view from a composite indicator

João Amador, Ana Fernandes and Guida Nogueira

Financial literacy of 15 years-old in Portugal: Evidence from PISA 2018

Hugo Reis and Lara Wemans

Workforce skills and firm productivity

Ana Catarina Pimenta, Marta Silva, Joana Cima and Miguel Portela

A micro-level analysis of corporate income taxation in Portugal

Cláudia Braz, Sonia Cabral and Maria Campos

Characteristics of parties and duration of insolvency cases in Portugal

Manuel Coutinho Pereira and Lara Wemans

Energy mix and intensity in Portugal: Portraits from aggregate and firm-level data

João Amador

2021

Revisiting Portuguese banks’ efficiency and productivity

Nuno Ribeiro and Inês Tavares

Household wealth in Portugal and the euro area

Luís Martins, Renata Mesquita, Sónia Costa and Luísa Farinha

Consumption expenditure during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis based on Portuguese card transaction data

Sonia Cabral, Cristina Manteu, Sara Serra and Cátia Silva

Euro area inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Sandra Gomes, Nikolay Iskrev and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

Simple guidelines for the taxation of housing

Pedro Teles

Heterogeneity in loan pricing: the role of bank capital

Diana Bonfim, Leonor Queiró and Luísa Farinha

Unveiling the real contribution of final demand to GDP growth

Fátima Cardoso and António Rua

Challenges in measuring fiscal effects

Cláudia Braz and Maria Campos

Curb your enthusiasm: the aggregate short-run effects of a borrower-based measure

Daniel Abreu and Joana Passinhas

Bank pricing of corporate loans

Márcio Mateus and Tiago Pinheiro

Cyclical outputs and structural budget balances

Cláudia Duarte, José Maria and Sharmin Sazedj

Lessons from a finitely-lived agents structural model

Paulo Júlio and José Maria

Portuguese firms’ financial vulnerability and excess debt in the context of the COVID-19 shock

Francisco Augusto and Márcio Mateus

On the measurement of Portuguese firms’ fixed operating costs

Sónia Félix, Pedro Dias Moreira and Nuno Silva

Indicators of monetary policy stance and financial conditions: an overview

Nikolay Iskrev, Rita Fradique Lourenço and Carla Soares