Crossovers between births falls and deaths peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Mexican case

Eliud Silva () and Alejandro Aguirre
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Eliud Silva: Universidad Anahuac Mexico
Alejandro Aguirre: El Colegio de Mexico, A. C.

EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, 2023, vol. 20, issue 2, 31-51

Abstract: To describe patterns of crossovers between births and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Likewise, use vital statistics to measure descents of deliveries by mothers’ ages. Official figures are analyzed to identify crossovers. Predictions from a multivariate time series model are emj ployed to estimate the dimension of birth descents in a counterfactual sense.Results: It is suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic is the reason for the anticipated crossover occurrence. The nega-tive trend of births suffers a dramatic fall. However, in some cases, there are recoveries. Limitations: According to official figures, there might be un-der-recordings of births and deaths due to the availability and access to Register offices. Originality: To identify the COVID-19 impact on the antici-pated occurrence of crossovers and birth falls in a country with previous public health problems.Conclusions: It is suggested that the anticipated occurrence of demographic crossovers resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. The significant fall in the number of births may impact on an accelerated aging in this country.

Keywords: COVID-19; births; demographic crossovers; deaths; Mexico. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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