THE RECESSION RISK FOR THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Ionela-Cătălina Zamfir and Ana-Maria Mihaela Iordache ()
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Ionela-Cătălina Zamfir: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Ana-Maria Mihaela Iordache: Romanian-American University, Bucharest, Romania

Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, 2019, vol. 13, issue 2, 190-201

Abstract: Each economy among European countries is a cybernetic system, characterized by several properties: it has agents that action by established rules, there are relations between agents, there is a feedback in the system and a small action that affect the balance of the system might cause a severe imbalance. Therefore, analyzing the European economy as a whole, composed by countries’ economies, we can identify the answer of the question raised in the past few years: “there are signs of a new European economic crisis?”. The aim of this paper is to analyze and compare European countries economies for the past 5 years (between 2014 and 2018) using HCPC methodology, in order to identify what country/countries change the class and if there are signs for recession or depression. The factor analysis (FA) is preferred for reducing the number of variables, Ward's method to identify the best number of classes and k-means for allocate each country to a class. The analyses show that there are signs for the start of a new economic crisis in Europe because of the spreading of a high recession risk.

Date: 2019
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