A DARK SCENARIO FOR ROMANIA’S PENSION SYSTEM FUTURE:FERTILITY, MORTALITY AND MIGRATION REMAIN THE SAME

Răzvan Bărbulescu

Romanian Economic Business Review, 2013, vol. 8, issue 1, 66-72

Abstract: The paper tries to forecast some of the issues of the pension funds and sustainability considering a scenario of constant age specific fertility and mortality in Romania for the next 50 years. Considering the issues that population ageing brings, we show that if nothing happens in Romania with the demographic indicators, we’re heading towards huge problems. The first problem we’ll experience is the lack of sustainability of the Romanian pension fund. This will increase deficits and lead to a debt spiral that is hard to stop, especially when confronting with an old population, high taxes that don’t attract migrants and the lack of capital.

Keywords: Population Ageing; Demographic Decline; Pension Fund (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rau:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:66-72

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