Analysisof Factors Influencing the Usage of Seasonal Forecast in Drought Prone Area: A Case of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Heri Kuswanto
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Heri Kuswanto: Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya, Indonesia

International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), 2019, vol. 8, issue 3, 64-71

Abstract: This research aims to investigatefactors influencing the households in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Indonesia to use seasonalforecast issued by the Meteorological Office (BMKG) Indonesia. NTT is a highly vulnerable region to drought, and hence, understanding thefutureweather and climate condition is a crucial issue. Household survey was conducted to interview 300 households in NTTasking about their intention to utilize the forecast information in supporting their livelihood. Furthermore, this research investigates whether the households characteristicsinfluencing the intention. Using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART), this researchfound that the intention to use forecast is dominantly influenced by age of the household head, ownership ofhousehold assets, main source of income, crop andlivestock activities and water source for livestock. Key Words:Forecast, CART, Adaptation, Livestock

Date: 2019
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