Does High Yield Spread Dampen Economic Growth?: The Case of US-Japan

Yutaka Kurihara

International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, 2014, vol. 3, issue 2, 01-09

Abstract: This article focuses on the empirical relationship between the United States’ and Japan’s yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studieshave tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet reached consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may changethe results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan;however, term structure of interest rate is not related to output growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth; Interest Rate; Yield Spread (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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