Hours and Employment Over the Business Cycle: A Structural Analysis
Matteo Cacciatore (),
Giuseppe Fiori and
Nora Traum ()
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2020, vol. 35, 240-262
We conduct Bayesian inference on a quantitative business-cycle model with search-and-matching frictions and a neoclassical hours-supply decision. Likelihood maximization with both U.S. macroeconomic and labor data shows the model cannot cannot jointly reproduce the comovement of the labor margins with themselves and with macro data. A parsimonious set of features reconciles the model with the data: non-separable preferences with parametrized wealth effects and costly hours adjustment. The model offers a structural explanation for the observed time-varying comovement between the labor margins, being either positive or negative, across post-war U.S. recessions and recoveries. Moreover, the estimated model shows adjustment in the intensive margin contributes up to half the dynamics of total hours in these episodes, as intensive-margin adjustments increase employment losses during recessions and delay employment recoveries. (Copyright: Elsevier)
Keywords: Bayesian Estimation; Business Cycles; Employment; Hours (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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