Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?

Rudolfs Bems and Kristian Jönsson Hartelius
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Kristian Jönsson Hartelius: Sveriges Riksbank

Review of Economic Dynamics, 2006, vol. 9, issue 1, 179-209

Abstract: Since their opening up to international capital markets, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced large and persistent capital inflows and trade deficits. This paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2004 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. The model indicates that trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Keywords: Baltic states; International factor movements; Non-traded goods; Adjustment costs; Dynamic general equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Working Paper: Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last? (2005)
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DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2005.05.006

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