Risks and Consequences of Demographic Changes in Romania

Răzvan Bărbulescu
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Răzvan Bărbulescu: Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania

Romanian Economic Journal, 2010, vol. 13, issue 36, 99-110

Abstract: During the last decades we have experienced serious demographic changes observed in the decrease in both fertility and mortality and that led to the ageing of population. Despite the decrease in mortality is a good thing, the ageing make the current social security models ineffective on long term and therefore unsustainable. The demographic forecasts are pessimistic stating that the median age of population will change from 35 years to 53 years, making an unsustainable amount of people become socially assisted. Official forecasts state that the deficits necessary to sustain such a social assistance will lead Romania into a dreadful 633% public debt versus GDP. This working paper tries to find answers to questions like: What is the risk of continuing the current deficit model and how can we quantify them; What are the long term effects of the short term decisions leading to demographic changes; What are Romania’s choices for future decisions with respect to the analyzed risks and what can each decision lead to.

Keywords: population ageing; public debt; unsustainable pension plans; PAYG; social security; fertility; marriage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 D60 H21 H53 H68 J13 J22 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rej:journl:v:13:y:2010:i:36:p:99-110

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