Explaining Private Debt

Lenno Uusküla

Review of Economic Analysis, 2016, vol. 8, issue 2, 153-176

Abstract: "The paper examines the relationship between more than 30 macroeconomic variables and debt-to-GDP ratios for the household, non-financial corporation and aggregate debt in a panel of European Union countries. The GDP level and the ratio of house prices to income are found to be positively correlated with the debt-to-GDP ratio, whereas the real interest rate, the inflation rate, economic sentiment and the government debt level are negatively correlated with the debt-to-GDP ratio. Low interest rates and the house price-to-income ratio predict growth in the future debt-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, countries that have had a financial crisis have typically gone through a period of deleveraging afterwards. "

Keywords: "private debt; macroeconomic conditions; correlation; forecasting " (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ren:journl:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:153-176

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