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Determinants of Exchange Rate Fluctuations of Uzbek Sum

Zafar Berdinazarov, Khasanjon Dodoev, Jamshid Mamasalaev and Jakhongirmirzo Fakhodjonov

Business and Management Studies, 2019, vol. 5, issue 1, 52-58

Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of exchange rate fluctuations of Uzbek sum by using three econometric models OLS (Ordinary Least Squares), ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and ML ARCH (Multivariate Long memory Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskadasticity). Model results show that the effects of money supply and remittances to the nominal and real exchange rates (USD/UZS) are found statistically significant; the impacts of inflation and interest rate are not econometrically meaningful. Also, it should be noted that the level of net trade influences to the exchange rate is not conclusive in our econometric analysis.

Keywords: exchange rates; interest rate; money supply; net trade; remittance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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