Markowitz versus Regime Switching: An Empirical Approach
The Review of Finance and Banking, 2012, vol. 04, issue 1, 033-043
This article discusses an adjusted regime switching model in the context of portfolio optimization and compares the attained portfolio weights and the performance to a classical mean-variance set-up as introduced by Markowitz (1952). The model postulates different asset price dynamics under different regimes, and jumps between regimes are driven by a Markov process. For examples, 'bear' and 'bull' markets could be such regimes. Given a particular regime, portfolio weights are set based on the conditional means and variancecovariance structure of the asset dynamics. The model is evaluated in an out-of-sample period of the last three years with a moving window and a forecast of only one period. It is found that with the adjusted regime switching portfolio selection algorithm as applied here, the performance of the optimal portfolio is highly improved even where portfolio weights are constrained to realistic values.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.rfb.ase.ro/articole/articol3.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfb:journl:v:04:y:2012:i:1:p:033-043
Access Statistics for this article
The Review of Finance and Banking is currently edited by Victor Dragota; Bogdan Negrea
More articles in The Review of Finance and Banking from Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante Strada Mihai Eminescu nr.13-15, sector 1, Bucuresti, Romania. Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Tatu Lucian ().