EU enlargement: Does economics of regional integration matter?

Srðan Marinkoviæ (), Zenaida Šabotiæ () and Dragiæ Rakiæeviæ ()
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Srðan Marinkoviæ: University of Niš, Faculty of Economics, Trg kralja Aleksandra Ujedinitelja 11, 18000 Niš, Serbia
Zenaida Šabotiæ: State University of Novi Pazar, Department of Economic Sciences, Vuka Karadžiæa bb, 36300 Novi Pazar, Serbia
Dragiæ Rakiæeviæ: State University of Novi Pazar, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Vuka Karadžiæa bb, 36300 Novi Pazar, Serbia

Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 2018, vol. 36, issue 2, 881-904

Abstract: For stability and advance of the EU and prospective member countries, it is important to assess the best time for new enlargement. In this paper, we have tested a number of macroeconomic and macro-financial variables in order to check whether a number of countries were ready to join the EU, and whether the candidates are ready. Some variables present criteria of nominal convergence as defined in Maastricht Treaty, while the rest of variables indicate the level of real convergence. Univariate analysis has indicated that the membership in the EU is significantly affected by GDP per capita, general government final consumption expenditure, final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, gross national expenditure, and inflation. Following the univariate binary logistic analysis and separation of variables that affect the individual membership in the EU, a multivariate regression analysis was applied. Multivariate binary logistic regression confirmed significance of general government final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. The analysis indicated the importance of selecting the timing of accession in terms of the achieved economic development, expressed through the selected macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, it appears that the list of tested economic criteria was played at best a secondary importance in past European enlargements.

Keywords: macroeconomic indicators; European Union; regional integration; convergence criteria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F16 F45 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:2:p:881-904

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