Medium-term forecast of European economic sustainable growth using Markov chains

Alina Haller, Ovidiu Gherasim (), Mariana B?lan () and Carmen Uzl?u ()
Additional contact information
Ovidiu Gherasim: Romanian Academy Branch of Ia?i – “Gh. Zane” Institute for Economic and Social Research, Codrescu Str, No. 2, 700481, Iasi, Romania
Mariana B?lan: Institute for Economic Forecasting – NIER, Romanian Academy, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie No.13, 050711, Bucharest, Romania
Carmen Uzl?u: Institute for Economic Forecasting – NIER, Romanian Academy, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie No.13, 050711, Bucharest, Romania

Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 2020, vol. 38, issue 2, 585-618

Abstract: Economic growth is a frequently analyzed aspect, both from theoretical and empirical standpoint, under the impact of the influence factors, while the issue of economic growth was studied by applying different methods and obtaining different results. In the case of EU28, the problem of economic convergence has to take into consideration the fact that the Member States are heterogeneous in terms of development and rate of growth. In the present paper, by using Markov chains we have made, a forecast of the GDP per capita evolution for the economies of the EU28 members, starting from the known time horizon – 1997-2016 as to approach a forecast horizon – 2017-2028. The results obtained show that the convergence process will be a slow one in the case of some Member States, especially in the Central and Eastern Europe. The future economic dynamics will intensify growth divergences, especially in the case of the European periphery, which will suffer minor modifications; the states with the most significant gaps will remain Bulgaria and Romania.

Keywords: economic growth; Markov chains; medium-term forecast; convergence; EU28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F43 N10 O11 O47 O52 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.efri.uniri.hr/upload/Zbornik%202_2020/14-Haller_et_al-2020-2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:38:y:2020:i:2:p:585-618

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics from University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Danijela Ujcic ().