Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Rate Volatility in Pakistan

Waqas Shair, Naveed Ahmad, Dr. Muhammad Tayyab and Iqra Ishaq
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Waqas Shair: Lecturer, School of Economics and Finance, Minhaj University Lahore, Pakistan
Naveed Ahmad: Independent Researcher, Pakistan
Dr. Muhammad Tayyab: Assistant Professor, School of Economics and Finance, Minhaj University Lahore, Pakistan
Iqra Ishaq: Customer Relation Officer, Anyer Co-polymer Industry Lahore, Pakistan

Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 2023, vol. 12, issue 4, 33-44

Abstract: This study examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty on Pakistan’s exchange rate. Pakistan’s exchange rate always remains under pressure due to the widening inflow-outflow gap in foreign exchange. The volatile exchange rates make it harder for businesses to invest and make inflation more uncertain which ultimately slows down productivity and GDP growth. Due to the close linkages of the exchange rate with the economic indicators it is required to examine the effect of different economic variables on the exchange rate and its volatility by incorporating the role of economic policy uncertainty. The study uses the sample of Jan 2011 to Dec 2022 for the empirical results. The study employs the EGARCH model for empirical results. The aftermaths of the mean equation of the EGARCH model suggest that economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on Pakistan’s exchange rate. Moreover an increase in the economic policy uncertainty scale increases the volatility in Pakistan’s exchange rate. The primary source of exchange rate volatility is the nominal variable rather than the real variables. On the basis of the study’s findings certain relevant recommendations were given in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market in Pakistan.

Keywords: Exchange rate; Economic policy uncertainty; Exchange rate volatility; EGARCH model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:33-44

DOI: 10.61506/01.00075

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