Exploring the Drivers of Government Expenditure Patterns in Pakistan

Waqar Muhammad Khan, Tahira Ilyas and Aneela Akhtar Chattha
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Waqar Muhammad Khan: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Chakwal, Pakistan
Tahira Ilyas: MPhil Scholar, Department of Economics, Women University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir Bagh, Pakistan
Aneela Akhtar Chattha: Department of Economics, University of Chakwal, Pakistan

Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 2023, vol. 12, issue 4, 689-699

Abstract: The study investigating the factors influencing government spending in Pakistan utilizes time-series data spanning from 1980 to 2019. The analysis modifies Wagner's law by incorporating political instability alongside variables such as GDP debt inflation population trade openness oil price and tax revenue. The long-term findings validate Wagner's law in both models while the short-term results deviate from Wagner's law in Pakistan. This deviation suggests that industrialization progress has enabled the government to improve public expenditure by providing essential facilities. Additionally the study reveals that the government's active role in national activities leads to an increase in its size. Inflation population oil price real GDP and political instability exhibit positive and significant connections with government expenditure in the long run for both models. Conversely debt nominal GDP political instability trade openness and tax revenue demonstrate negative and significant connections with government expenditure in the long run for both models. However the short-term results vary between the two models.

Keywords: Government expenditure; GDP; Oil price; Wagner’s law; Political instability; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:689-699

DOI: 10.61506/01.00275

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