Forecasting Mango Production and Area in Punjab, Pakistan for 2021-2029

Sana Arooj, Yasir Nawaz, Abdul Hafeez and Ghulam Mustafa
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Sana Arooj: Lecturer, Department of Statistics, Government Commerce College for Women, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan
Yasir Nawaz: Lecturer, Department of Statistics, University of Veterinary & Animal Sciences (UVAS), Lahore, Pakistan
Abdul Hafeez: Assistant director, Crop Reporting Service Agriculture, Department, Punjab, Pakistan
Ghulam Mustafa: Deputy Director, Crop Reporting Service Agriculture, Department, Punjab, Pakistan

Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 2024, vol. 13, issue 2, 481-486

Abstract: Production of Mango in Pakistan has increased due to use of improved farm inputs and better management practices. Despite an increased production and rising demand in the export market, the potential of mango export has, however, not been fully achieved. Pakistan has comparative advantage in the production of Mango and enormous potential exists for its export in the vast Middle East market. The Punjab province of Pakistan which account for 63% of the country's total mango output. The objective of this study is to predict the area and output of mangoes of Pakistan's Punjab province for the year 2029. For this purpose, the 63-year data from 1957-2019 has been collected from Crop Reporting Service Punjab. Box-Jenkins method has been used to build an appropriate Univaraite ARIMA model. The best model was chosen after a comparison of the models' mean absolute percentage error, root mean squared error, stationary R-square, and other properties. The area's acceptable model was ARIMA (1,1,0) and production’s acceptable model was ARIMA (1,1,1). Additionally, this estimate predicts that by 2029, the area will be (246.46-279.63) hectors and output will be 1358.10-1538.47) million tons. The results of this study will be useful to government planners, marketers, businesses and purchasing nations.

Keywords: Area; ARIMA; Box Jenkins-approach; Correlograms; Forecast; Mango; Stationary (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:481-486

DOI: 10.61506/01.00358

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