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A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China

Fan Zhai, Tun Lin and Enerelt Byambadorj
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Enerelt Byambadorj: Asian Development Bank

Asian Development Review, 2009, vol. 26-1, issue 1, 206-225

Abstract: This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.

Date: 2009
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