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Export or Domestic-led Growth in Asia?

Jesus Felipe () and Joseph Anthony Lim
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Joseph Anthony Lim: Asian Development Bank

Asian Development Review, 2005, vol. 22-2, issue 2, 35-75

Abstract: In recent years, some developing Asian countries claim to have started shifting emphasis from export-led to domestic demand-led growth policies with a view to achieving a more balanced growth strategy. This paper evaluates empirically how far this shift has gone. The evaluation—based on an analysis of five countries—finds no evidence that the period 1993–2003 has been marked by such a shift. It also finds that periods of expansionary domestic demand and deteriorating net exports signaled an ensuing crisis. This should serve in the future as an early warning system.

Date: 2005
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