Impacts of Rules of Origin Complexity on Thai Exports

Kunchalika Pongjit
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Kunchalika Pongjit: Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand

Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, 2025, vol. 32, issue 2, 1-32

Abstract: This study examines the impact of the complexity of Rules of Origin (RoOs) on Thai Exports under three regional FTAs, namely the ASEAN – China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), the ASEAN – Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (AJCEP), and the ASEAN – Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA), using Thailand as a case study during 2006 – 2020. We use the Product – Specific Rules in RoOs Annex to construct an index gauging the complexity of RoOs across the three FTAs. Using gravity model, the effects of RoOs complexity on exports are estimated by applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) fixed – effect regression technique, which is one of the estimation methods for Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) models. The results indicate that RoOs act as a trade barrier, negatively impacting export flows, particularly under the AJCEP agreement. The effects of RoOs complexity vary across export categories, with the most significant negative impacts observed in the fish and fish preparations industries, followed by the machinery and electrical industries, and the automotive industry.

Keywords: Rules of Origin; Free Trade Agreements; Thailand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F15 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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