Methodological basis of modeling evolution of markets of products with long life cycle: a study of the civil aircrafts’ market

Leonid Varshavsky ()

Applied Econometrics, 2010, vol. 20, issue 4, 53-74

Abstract: Approach to modeling evolution of market of civil aircraft is proposed. The study of prospects of the US passenger traffic is carried out on the basis of the constructed econometric model of oligopoly in airline industry. Scenarios of key indicators of the market (market structure, revenue passenger miles, aircraft fleet, etc.) are built. Influence of jet fuel prices on the future of the industry is analyzed. In the article linear dynamic model of learning, with taking into account organizational forgetting in aircraft manufacturing, is built. It was applied to the study of the effects of learning and forgetting in aircraft production in Boeing and Airbus. Utilization of such a model makes it significantly easier computation of optimal strategies of companies with durable lifecycle of products. An approach to forming requirements to indicators of new breakthrough technique is proposed (with application to the market of narrow-bodied aircraft)

Keywords: Modeling; airlines; aircraft manufacturing; oligopolistic markets; breakthrough technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C73 D43 L62 L93 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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