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Using spatial econometric models for regional unemployment forecasting

Elena Semerikova and Olga Demidova

Applied Econometrics, 2016, vol. 43, 29-51

Abstract: We consider forecasting unemployment in Russian and German region with the help of econometric panel data models. Using regional data from 2005 till 2012 we show that spatial panel data models perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than other models (on average and at least for some distinct regions) such as non-spatial panel data models, pooled OLS, models without exploratory variables and naive forecasts (average value for one or several previous periods).

Keywords: spatial panel data models; prediction; regional unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 C23 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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