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Modelling interregional mobility of university graduates in Russia

Victoria Moskvina ()
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Victoria Moskvina: Economic Expert Group (EEG), Moscow, Russian Federation

Applied Econometrics, 2019, vol. 56, 99-122

Abstract: The purpose of this work is to explain the directions of interregional mobility of university graduates in Russia. An econometric model is being developed, based on the gravity model of migration. The Monitoring of graduates’ employability (2013–2015) was used as the source of the migration data. It was shown that the use of count data models (Poisson regression) leads to a more precise estimation compared with OLS (according to calculated metrics of prediction accuracy — MAE and MSE). According to the results one of the main reasons for the observed post-graduate mobility is the lack of jobs for qualified specialists in a region. In addition, some other characteristics — high marriage rate and developed system of higher education in a region — are capable of retaining young people in the regions of graduation. At the same time diverse recreational opportunities and effective healthcare system in destination area attract graduates from other parts of the country. The results obtained clarify in which direction the conditions in lagging territories are needed to be improved in order to accumulate human capital, necessary for the start of development in these areas.

Keywords: migration; gravity model; graduate mobility; Poisson regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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