Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns

Agata Lozinskaia (), Anastasiia Redkina () and Evgeniya Shenkman
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Agata Lozinskaia: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation
Anastasiia Redkina: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation

Applied Econometrics, 2020, vol. 60, 5-25

Abstract: In the paper, a medium-term forecast of electricity consumption is built on monthly data from January 2008 to September 2019 for all regions of the Urals integrated power system. A key feature of the work is the use of linear combinations of forecasts that are produced with time series basic models with deterministic and stochastic seasonality. The proposed methodology demonstrates high and robust forecast accuracy in comparison with the basic models and can be applied by various players in the electricity market.

Keywords: wholesale electricity market; electricity consumption forecasting; deterministic seasonality; stochastic seasonality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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