On decrease in oil price elasticity of GDP and investment in Russia

Andrey Polbin and Anton Skrobotov ()

Applied Econometrics, 2022, vol. 66, 5-24

Abstract: The article evaluates cointegrating regression models with time-varying parameters to describe the relationship between real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption in the Russian Federation with oil prices. In the early 2000s there was an increase in the elasticities of the analyzed macroeconomic indicators with respect to oil prices, the peak of the elasticities occurred in the second half of the 2000s, after the crisis of 2008–2009 significant declines in elasticities have been identified, and in recent years the oil price elasticity of real GDP has been about 0.05, while for real investment and consumption it has been about 0.12.

Keywords: TVP-cointegration; GDP; investment; consumption; oil prices; Russian economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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