Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method

Marina Frants ()
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Marina Frants: Institute of Social and Economic Researches of the Ufa Federal Scientific Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russian Federation;

Applied Econometrics, 2024, vol. 74, 104-123

Abstract: The research deals with the synthetic control group method application to assess the causal effect of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. The analysis of SCG method assumptions to the problem allowed us to establish that the most problematic issue is comparison group formation. We use the source data from the World Development Indicators database. GDP by PPP per capita was an outcome variable. The application of the method to assessing the impact of sanctions pressure shows that it is possible to select the weights in such a way as to ensure good closeness of the indicators of real and synthetic Russia in the pre-event period. Such states as Kazakhstan, Argentina, Brazil, and the USA were most in demand for the formation of a synthetic Russia, . However, the estimates are unstable to changes in the set of countries used to form the synthetic control.

Keywords: economic sanctions; synthetic control group method; uniformity principle; no interference principle. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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