Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Onil Banerjee, Moogdho Mahzab () and M Asaduzzaman
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M Asaduzzaman: Professorial Fellow, Postal: Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)

Bangladesh Development Studies, 2015, vol. 38, issue 01, 77-100

Abstract: Bangladesh aims to reach the middle income country status by 2021. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the key drivers of growth including population, factor productivity growth and climate change. The results show that small changes in population and productivity growth have a greater impact than climate change and, in a business as usual scenario, 2021 targets would be reached in 2031. For reaching the middle-income country status by 2021, the country requires a 3.5 per cent productivity growth yielding a GDP and GDP growth of $366.1 billion and nearly 12 per cent respectively. It is also estimated that reducing the impact of climate change by 25 per cent would save $5.06 million annually.

Keywords: Bangladesh; Middle Income; Total Factor Productivity; Climate Change; Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D24 N50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:badest:0779

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