Sustainability of Social Security Policies in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks

Halim Tatlı and Ismet Gocer

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2015, vol. 6, issue 3, 87-111

Abstract: In this study, sustainability of social security policies in Turkey was analyzed by using 1989-2013 period annual data and 2007:M01-2014:M05 monthly data from by means of unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) and cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012) and it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the series. Long-term cointegration coefficients were estimated by FMOLS and it was found that social security policies are sustainable in the weak form in Turkey. It was found that around 70% within 1989-2013 period and around 78% within 2007-2014 period of social security expenditures were met by income of social security institute. It was seen that sustainability of social security system has slightly improved in recent years.

Keywords: Social security system; sustainability; multiple structural break analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 I18 P23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:buecrj:0195

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