Inflation Dynamics in Post-Soviet Economies: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Time-Series Models

Nermin Yaşar Başkaraağaç
Additional contact information
Nermin Yaşar Başkaraağaç: Cankaya University

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2026, vol. 17, issue 2, 169-183

Abstract: This study examines the dynamics of inflation in 13 post-Soviet economies over the period 1992–2024 using annual consumer price index data. Linear and nonlinear econometric approaches—including ARMA, GARCH-type, and threshold autoregressive (TAR) models—are employed to capture both persistence and regime-dependent behavior in inflation processes. The results reveal significant cross-country heterogeneity. Inflation in Estonia and Lithuania exhibits rapid mean reversion under low-inflation regimes, reflecting strong institutional credibility, whereas Belarus and Tajikistan display prolonged persistence driven by fiscal imbalances. Evidence of asymmetric volatility in Armenia and Kazakhstan highlights the vulnerability of commodity-dependent economies to exchange-rate and external shocks. Overall, the findings emphasize that institutional quality and policy coherence are essential for achieving durable price stability. Strengthening central bank independence, enhancing fiscal discipline, and adopting credible inflation-targeting regimes are vital for sustaining macroeconomic stability in the post-Soviet region. The study also demonstrates the analytical value of nonlinear models in capturing the complex and asymmetric nature of inflation adjustment in transition economies.

Keywords: Inflation persistence; Post-Soviet economies; nonlinear stationarity; ARMA-GARCH Models; TAR estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.berjournal.com/tr/inflation-dynamics-i ... r-time-series-models
https://www.berjournal.com/tr/inflation-dynamics-i ... r-time-series-models

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:buecrj:022571

DOI: 10.20409/berj.2026.493

Access Statistics for this article

Business and Economics Research Journal is currently edited by Adem Anbar

More articles in Business and Economics Research Journal from Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Adem Anbar ().