Analysis of Volatility in Gold Prices with the Markov Regime-Switching Models

Samet Evci, Nazan Şak and Gökben Adana Karaağaç
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Samet Evci: Osmaniye Korkut Ata University
Nazan Şak: Osmaniye Korkut Ata University
Gökben Adana Karaağaç: Osmaniye Korkut Ata University

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2016, vol. 7, issue 4, 67-77

Abstract: Aim of this study is to determine winning and losing periods with Markov regime-switching models in the gold market. Monthly return data of BIST and London gold markets are used for the period July 1995-July 2015. Results show that Markov regime-switching models are more suitable than the linear model for analyzing the gold returns and also the probabilities of remaining within the same regime are high for the gold returns. Another finding is that two months lagged value of London gold returns affect BIST gold returns.

Keywords: Gold Price; Markov Regime-Switching Models; Time Varying Markov Regime-Switching Models; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G11 O50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:buecrj:0248

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