Trade, Trade Finance, and Global Liquidity in Asia; Markov-Switching FAVAR Approach

Douglas H. Brooks (), Elvira Kurmanalieva and Doo Yong Yang
Additional contact information
Douglas H. Brooks: Asian Development Bank

East Asian Economic Review, 2016, vol. 20, issue 3, 339-363

Abstract: This paper analyzes why the global financial crisis in 2008 severely affected Asia's trade. Asia has been suffering from the falls in export demand from developed countries. However the abrupt trade declines in Asia are not fully explained by reactions to this as in previous experiences. The question is why the financial crisis in 2008 brought about the abrupt and deep collapse in world trade, while other world-wide recessions had more moderate effects on world trade. This paper shows that the dynamic relationship between trade and trade finance is one important factor in explaining this question. This paper also applies the Granger (causality) test to uncover different relationships in the developed and developing economies and show different results for different countries in Asia. We employ a Markov-Switching FAVAR (Factor Augmented VAR) to show that global liquidity shocks are important factors in explaining the huge and abrupt trade drops in Asia.

Keywords: Trade Finance; Global Liquidity; Markov-Switching Factor Augmented VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F19 F39 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.313 Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:eaerev:0008

Access Statistics for this article

East Asian Economic Review is currently edited by JE Lee

More articles in East Asian Economic Review from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy [30147] 3rd Floor Building C Sejong National Research Complex 370 Sicheong-daero Sejong-si, Korea. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by JE Lee ().