Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: “Preference Ordering” Using CGE Analysis

Xianbai Ji (), Pradumna B. Rana (), Wai-Mun Chia () and Changtai Li ()
Additional contact information
Xianbai Ji: Nanyang Technological University, The Australian National University
Pradumna B. Rana: Nanyang Technological University
Wai-Mun Chia: Nanyang Technological University
Changtai Li: Nanyang Technological University

East Asian Economic Review, 2018, vol. 22, issue 2, 177-215

Abstract: Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.

Keywords: Post-TPP; RCEP; CPTPP; FTAAP; CGE Modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F13 F50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342 Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:eaerev:0342

Access Statistics for this article

East Asian Economic Review is currently edited by JE Lee

More articles in East Asian Economic Review from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy [30147] 3rd Floor Building C Sejong National Research Complex 370 Sicheong-daero Sejong-si, Korea. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by JE Lee ().