A Probit Model Towards the Prediction of Financial Crises

Mete Feridun ()
Additional contact information
Mete Feridun: Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cyprus International University, Postal: Haspolat-Lefkoşa, Cyprus, http://www.ciu.edu.tr/

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2004, vol. 57, issue 4, 429-440

Abstract: This article focuses on the Turkish financial crisis of 2001 and aims at devising an early warning system based on a probit model incorporating six monthly macroeconomic variables spanning the period between 1991 and 2001. Regression results indicate that consumer price index, Turkish Lira/US dollar exchange rate, and domestic credit are the significant variables in explaining financial crises. Results of the out-of-sample tests indicate that the predictive power of the probit model is satisfactory.

JEL-codes: F30 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:ecoint:0123

Access Statistics for this article

Economia Internazionale / International Economics is currently edited by Giovanni Battista Pittaluga

More articles in Economia Internazionale / International Economics from Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova Via Garibaldi 4, 16124 Genova, Italy. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Angela Procopio ().