Fluttuazioni del prodotto e persistenza: una verifica per l’Italia - Output fluctuations and persistence: the evidence for Italy

Carlo Croce
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Carlo Croce: Università di Genova, Facoltà di Economia, Postal: Darsena - Via Vivaldi 5 - 16126 Genova - Italy, http://www.unige.it/

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 1996, vol. 49, issue 2, 177-195

Abstract: The traditional view of transitory real output fluctuations around a stable long term growth, implicit in the standard explanation of business cycle, has been questioned in the last years by a number of papers. In fact, if these fluctuations are persistent, there is no tendency for output to return to his growth path. A recent non parametric approach may contribute in measuring the degree of output fluctuations persistence around his trend. After the application of this technique to recently published historical PIL series for Italy, we are unable to reject that these series are non stationary stochastic processes (random walks), with no trend reversion tendency. This is consistent with other findings for Italy using data with a shorter time

Date: 1996
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