“Undermining the Case for a Trade War between the U.S. and China” - Una critica all’ipotesi di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina

Imad A. Moosa ()
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Imad A. Moosa: RMIT University School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Postal: Building 108 Level 12, 239 Bourke Street Melbourne 3000 Victoria, Australia,, http://www.rmit.edu.au

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2011, vol. 64, issue 3, 365-388

Abstract: Arguments are put forward to challenge the case for a trade war between the U.S. and China. The threat of a trade war against China is based on three pillars: (i) the Chinese currency is undervalued, (ii) undervaluation of the yuan is the cause of and cure for the U.S. massive trade deficit, and (iii) Chinese policies are illegal and immoral because they hurt not only the U.S. but also the rest of the world and China itself. It is suggested that no one really knows whether the Chinese currency is undervalued or overvalued, that revaluation of the yuan will not eliminate or reduce significantly the U.S. deficit with China and that Chinese policies are neither illegal nor immoral. - Vi è un acceso dibattito sulla ipotesi di una possibile guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina. La minaccia di una guerra commerciale contro la Cina si basa su tre pilastri: i) la valuta cinese è sottovalutata; ii) la sottovalutazione dello yuan è sia la causa sia la cura dell’enorme deficit commerciale degli USA; iii) le politiche cinesi sono illegali e immorali poiché danneggiano non solo gli USA ma anche il resto del mondo e la Cina stessa. Lo studio evidenzia che in realtà non si può affermare con certezza se la valuta cinese sia sopra- o sottovalutata, né che la rivalutazione dello yuan ridurrebbe significativamente il deficit USA con la Cina e inoltre che le politiche cinesi al riguardo non sono né illegali né immorali.

Keywords: China; Misalignment; Trade Deficit; Trade War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F31 F32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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