Is Real Appreciation or more Government Debt Contractionary? The Case of Romania

Yu Hsing
Additional contact information
Yu Hsing: Department of Management & Business Administration, College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, Louisiana,

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2017, vol. 70, issue 4, 469-478

Abstract: Applying the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model, this paper finds that Romania’s real GDP is positively associated with real appreciation of the leu during 2005.Q2 – 2013.Q4, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by real appreciation of the leu during 2014.Q1 – 2016.Q3, government debt as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that recent real depreciation of the leu would help raise real GDP, whereas recent rising government debt as a percent of GDP would be harmful to real GDP. Il deprezzamento del cambio reale o un maggior debito pubblico hanno effetti contrattivi? Il caso della Romania Applicando il modello della domanda e dell’offerta aggregate questo studio presenta evidenze che il PIL reale rumeno è positivamente associato all’apprezzamento reale del leu nel periodo 2° trimestre 2005 – 4° trimestre 2013, con il prezzo reale del petrolio e con i salari reali, mentre risulta negativamente influenzato dall’apprezzamento reale del leu nel periodo 1° trimestre 2014 – 3° trimestre 2016, dal debito pubblico come percentuale del PIL, dal tasso di interesse reale e dal tasso di inflazione attesa. Questi risultati suggeriscono che la recente svalutazione del leu potrebbe favorire il PIL reale, mentre l’aumento del debito pubblico in percentuale del PIL verificatosi recentemente potrebbe essere dannoso per il PIL reale.

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Government Debt; Interest Rates; Oil Prices; Wages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iei1946.it/upload/rivista_articoli/allegati/154_hsingricfinalx.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:ecoint:0813

Access Statistics for this article

Economia Internazionale / International Economics is currently edited by Giovanni Battista Pittaluga

More articles in Economia Internazionale / International Economics from Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova Via Garibaldi 4, 16124 Genova, Italy. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Angela Procopio ().